NiueOne Signal Is Not the Whole
Niue's rank is an artefact of two things: a strong parliamentary share, and imputed values that sit at the middle of the series for everything else.
Niue's provisional GEVI is 51.8 (90% interval 43.1 to 58.7), 6th of 15 on the point estimate but with a rank range of 5 to 8. The position is driven by one measured input: women hold 6 of 20 seats in the Niue Assembly (30%), the second highest share in the series. The other 11 of 13 inputs are imputed (blind-spot ratio 0.85), so the score is a placeholder.
Source: the attached country paper. Animation reveals reported measures; it does not show change over time.
Abstract
Niue's provisional GEVI is 51.8 (90% interval 43.1 to 58.7), 6th of 15 on the point estimate but with a rank range of 5 to 8. The position is driven by one measured input: women hold 6 of 20 seats in the Niue Assembly (30%), the second highest share in the series. The other 11 of 13 inputs are imputed (blind-spot ratio 0.85), so the score is a placeholder.
Niue's rank is an artefact of two things: a strong parliamentary share, and imputed values that sit at the middle of the series for everything else. The score would fall if the imputed values were replaced by measured values below the median and rise if they were above it; the interval (43.1 to 58.7) is the honest expression of that. The parliamentary figure is also volatile in a chamber of 20, where one seat is 5 percentage points.
Priorities include Compile a national gender data note from the latest census and administrative records, so at least the labour and business rows are measured; Confirm the 2023 Assembly composition from the Assembly itself and move I12 from grade B to A; Check whether Niue can be covered by the WBL survey.
Download the paper PDFHeadline result
Niue's provisional GEVI is 51.8 (90% interval 43.1 to 58.7), 6th of 15 on the point estimate but with a rank range of 5 to 8. The position is driven by one measured input: women hold 6 of 20 seats in the Niue Assembly (30%), the second highest share in the series. The other 11 of 13 inputs are imputed (blind-spot ratio 0.85), so the score is a placeholder.
90% interval 43.1–58.7.
Rank 6 of 15 · Blind-spot ratio 0.85.
versus D2 at 0.806
How the index is built
Dimensions are simple means of their indicators. The index uses a weighted geometric mean. Imputed inputs use the series medians; these are placeholders, not observed country outcomes.
| Dimension | Score D | Weight w | D^w |
|---|---|---|---|
| D1 Labour participation | 0.792 | 0.25 | 0.9434 |
| D2 Job quality and seniority | 0.806 | 0.20 | 0.9578 |
| D3 Enterprise and legal rights | 0.569 | 0.20 | 0.8932 |
| D4 Institutional visibility | 0.260 | 0.15 | 0.8170 |
| D5 Statistical and political voice | 0.300 | 0.20 | 0.7860 |
= 51.8
Product of the five terms = 0.5183, so GEVI = 100 × 0.5183 = 51.8, rank 6 of 15. Values are rounded as reported in the source.
Uncertainty and rank sensitivity
The simulation samples each score with the standard deviation of its grade (1 grade A at 0.02, 1 grade B at 0.06, 11 grade C at 0.12). Median 51.2, 5th to 95th percentile 43.1 to 58.7; blind-spot ratio 11/13 = 0.85. Under random weights alone the rank has a median of 6 with a range of 5 to 8.
Source and indicator caveats
The parliamentary figure comes from Wikipedia's Women in Niue, a secondary source, and is graded B; the same page reports that women headed 27.7% of households in 2022 and that women are more likely to leave the workforce for domestic duties. Those two points are context only and are not in the calculation.
Where the gap is
Each scenario raises one dimension to full parity, holding the others fixed.
| Dimension raised to 1.0 | GEVI | Gain |
|---|---|---|
| D1 | 54.9 | +3.1 |
| D2 | 54.1 | +2.3 |
| D3 | 58.0 | +6.2 |
| D4 | 63.4 | +11.6 |
| D5 | 65.9 | +14.1 |
The only measured lever is data coverage: I13 from 0.000 to 0.750 gives 61.0, +9.1. Lifting I12 is not tested because at 0.600 it is already above the series upper quartile.
Scenario values and gains are reproduced as printed; rounding can affect the subtraction of displayed values. These are conditional model scenarios, not forecasts or causal estimates.
Reading the result
Niue's rank is an artefact of two things: a strong parliamentary share, and imputed values that sit at the middle of the series for everything else. The score would fall if the imputed values were replaced by measured values below the median and rise if they were above it; the interval (43.1 to 58.7) is the honest expression of that. The parliamentary figure is also volatile in a chamber of 20, where one seat is 5 percentage points.
Priorities and practical use
The priorities connect the index to actions and named users.
Compile a national gender data note from the latest census and administrative records, so at least the labour and business rows are measured.
Confirm the 2023 Assembly composition from the Assembly itself and move I12 from grade B to A.
Check whether Niue can be covered by the WBL survey.
Who uses the data, and for what decision?
| Data product | Primary user | Decision it informs | Cadence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census and administrative tables by sex | Statistics office, government treasury | Replace 11 imputed inputs; the data-coverage lift alone is worth +9.1 points | Once, then annual |
| Assembly and cabinet composition series | Assembly, women's organisations | A measured record of a political outcome that stands out in the region | After each election |
| Household-headship and workforce-exit data by sex | Social services, treasury | Whether women's domestic burden is shaping participation; context from the secondary source is not yet measured | Census |
Niue's most useful role in the series is as a small-state example where one strong measured input is easy to over-read; its score should not be used to allocate resources until more inputs are measured.
Series: GEVI Research Series · Paper 15 · DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.23211196